2023 Predictions

Sam Swift, CFA, CFP®, AIF®

Dec 20, 2022

The end of 2022 is upon us and, as predicted, it was another year where it would have been impossible to make an accurate market prediction. To be fair, every year is an unpredictable year and unworthy of making such a prediction. It’s important to remember this as you see 2023 market predictions published and talked about. No one genuinely knows what’s going to happen. If they did, they probably wouldn’t give away the information for free to have it be consumed by everyone. Furthermore, how often are these people held accountable for the predictions? I would love to see the predictors revisit their predictions every summer and fall so we could see if their predictions were correct.

Of course, in a world where data and analytics are omnipresent there are indicators of what could happen, but we must keep the following in mind:

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Even with all the data and analytics available, predicting market returns and activities is nearly impossible. So, a new year is more symbolic of a fresh start than anything. Simply because the calendar starts over doesn’t mean the previous year’s economic concerns vanish. In December 2022 there are concerns of recession, lingering inflation and global conflict. Each of these will likely remain top of mind in 2023 and may have an impact on the market in some way.

No matter what day it is, the markets are going to do what the markets are going to do. At TCI, we understand this and have been working within this confine since day one. Coming to terms with this (and ignoring the noise) gives us the freedom to focus on trying to maximize your financial journey with us in other ways. This means we spend our time focusing on:

  • Seeking long-term investment success.
  • Diversifying portfolios.
  • Keeping fees low.
  • Helping you accomplish your goals.

Predictions You Can Control

Since we’re not concentrating on daily market movement, your TCI team can help you in other areas of your life. For example, we love helping clients accomplish their goals. After all, accomplishing goals is another form of prediction. By setting out to accomplish a goal, you’re making predictions about your future. Since we have some control over these outcomes, as opposed to market returns–what predictions do you have for yourself for the upcoming year? As you think about this, remember to be realistic. When you think about reading another fabulous TCI blog this time next year, what version of yourself is going to be reading it? You’re going to be the same you, but is the future version of you going to have accomplished one of your goals? Multiple goals?

This is what we mean when we talk about empowering purpose-filled lives. While the markets are doing their thing, what will you be doing? My hope (and that of everyone at TCI) is that you’ll be using your own influence to positively impact the predictions you make on yourself so you can accomplish your goals.

One goal that I can never seem to accomplish this time of year is limiting cookie consumption. They’re always around and always delicious. So, use this blog as a form of encouragement and a reminder to be kind to yourself while attempting to accomplish your goals, it’s not easy. (This last part may have been for me because another cookie sounds good right about now.)

Happy holidays and hopefully you’ll be able to enjoy some time with friends and family. No matter what happens in the market next year, we’ll be talking about it. Here’s to 2023!

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